Winter 2011-2012

[StratoQ]

** STOP PRESS! ***

The poor Donegal Postman (Michael Gallagher) got lambasted today on Liveline. A couple of garden shop owners in Kilkenny and Laois pointed out that plant sales had collapsed since early Sept due to the dire snow/frost predictions in the media (notably the Star) for October.

http://www.rte.ie/radio1/liveline/

They said the people kept referring to the Donegal Postman (whereas from what I understand it is really James Madden is the source) predicting dire weather and refused to purchase anything.

The shops suffered 60% collapse in sales and had to let staff go.

I have had a look back and I believe the Postman has been blamed in error. I cannot see any reference he made to dire October snow/frost.

Which brings me back to Madden. The man has had an absolutely ridiculous efffect on the general populace. I suppose though he is only part to blame as the Star/Mail/Express etc have given him the loudspeaker.

I for one would love to see him being taken to account somehow (legally or otherwise) for his actions.

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[Irishweather]

I watched this last night and it was very informative.

It looks like NOT a repeat of last year (Surprise )
Late January or February looks like the most wintry period.

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[LaoisWeather]

Poor Donegal postman indeed SQ, I felt a tad sorry for him after hearing that interview; if I had known it was going to feature I would have rang in and put the record straight.

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[cheerireland]

Hi, I wonder if you could answer this question. It is probably written someone, but I am not as intelligent as some of the people on here. What are the predictions for Winter Weather this winter? I am a big snow hater and trying to suss it all out now.

Thanks,

Hayzer - Dublin

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[T9]

Have a read of this Hayzer as it echoes the feelings of most people here and maybe check this thread:  http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php/topic,2115.0.html


Quote from: Snowbie on October 19, 2011, 20:43:33

    I'm not here to tell you all how it's going to pan out, I'm telling you all how it is in the real world.

    Winter 2008/2009 started late in January with good amount of snow in the east especially over the Wicklow mtns.
    Winter 2009/2010 was noted for the longevity of cold with avg temps below the seasonal norm but with lack of snow.
    Winter 2010/2011 well December was a record breaker but Jan was below avg and Feb 2C above avg temp and rainfall above avg too. Apart from snow in the midlands on 7th Jan, nothing else happened with Feb being a complete washout.

    Winter 2011/2012, Mother nature only knows? You can never rule out snow in the Winter months. Will we see another record breaking month like Dec 2010, the length of cold like the season before or will we settle into the usual pattern or mild or perhaps cool zonal with some cold snaps instead of cold spells.

    I have to be critical of these LRFs and repeat myself but due to the above recent winters, some have just jumped on the bandwagon because it was cold and snowy in this country. These people just don't have the first clue of what is around the corner. As they can't see the weather in 2 weeks time, how can they forecast and predict months in advance. Meteorology is not an exact science and is just completely guess work. I have never seen any hard evidence to prove themselves right only to speculate on what went wrong. 1 out of 2 chances they can be right so the odds are in favour.

    To summarise,
    Dec 2010, no one saw this coming. Not naming any names but the respected folk got this wrong.
    April probably the summer of 2011 but in mid Spring. Was this predicted by these experts, no.
    Summer 2011 heatwaves, in fact the coldest Summer in 46 years in places with majority below the avg temp wise. Yet again these folk got this wrong.
    October 2011, -20s predicted and snow but reached 30C in the UK but we where so close to this airmass only high pressure just slipped further east. Nevertheless, this October may end up a record breaking month with well above temperature in Ireland.

    November snows and cold now. I can't tell you this will happen nor can I tell you it won't, I know what I would like but not too sure if we will get it.
    If it's within 10 days or farthest reaches of FI (Fantasy Island) we can talk about it and watch it develop but with the usual caveats, this will all change on next runs but we sit up and take note when someone mentions snow 3 months away. Why believe these folk and how can you take their word if they are so wrong all the time, again the 1 out of of 2 chance they can be right.

    I don't do LRF, I don't believe them and never did. Science defo FTW but why can the professionals only can go to 10 days when even they admit that climatology(basically the study of Earth's past and predicting trends in future) is a developing science and a very low % beyond 30 days. They too got this wrong with the global warming which blew out of kilter. This stuff makes headlines and sells to the general public. I wouldn't jump on this bandwagon and support it.

    I love cold and snowy winters, it excites me when I see a first glance and a snapshot of something in the making in FI and watch it develop. This is the real buzz to weather forecasting and then fine tuning it as it comes closer to the time. This is what I enjoy doing and tell it how it is and not what people like to hear.

    Today FM rang me around 2pm to do a piece on this cold snap with Matt Cooper on the last word. It was a Live piece at 450pm. At first , She asked me a few questions to see what I knew of this cold snap (this one atm) and I said what cold snap? you mean cold blip?. This is not unusual for October in this record breaking mild month, it's being mild since Autumn began and the talk in the media about all this snow and cold is inaccurate back in September. So I was prepared to tell the country my thoughts again but strange enough, I got a phonecall back at 430pm to say the slot can't be filled with this topic today. I wondered if I said to her early that this winter is going to be harsh, snowy and bitter would have I got on the airwaves then? Remains to be seen.

    I will continue to support the posting up of these LRFs here as they won't effect my life whatsoever, but post up their findings and help them educate me and you and to why this or that will occur. Right now, no rock solid evidence. One other thing, if the apparent low solar activity does not pan out for this winter and the La Nina winter that's due, we should jettison this theory out to space. If it does occur and the length of cold some are predicting with snow galore, I will then take with a smaller pinch of salt and listen a bit more. 

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[BUTTERFLY]

I am somewhat confused as to whether the British Met Office predicted the severity and duration of the cold December of 2010 as a a whole in advance; I have a vague recollection of a claim in a newspaper that while a long-range forecast was not released to the public, local authorities were warned about the likelihood of a prolonged cold spell, although as always it is hard to sort out the true facts. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2010 does not show a prediction of cold weather for December 2010 as a whole, although from 18th November 2010 there are a lot of individaul press releases abut cold weather over coming days (a total of 26 on-line Press Releases from then to the end of December refer to cold weather).

Do Met Eireann issue Monthly or seasonal forecasts in advance? There is nothing that I can see on their website? (This is not meant as a criticism of Met Eireann, as the British Met Office by and large stopped doing this some time ago as it appears that the accuracy of forecasts beyond about 5 days is little better than chance). This 5 day period may be the reason why every Sunday on "Countryfile" when they give "The Weather for the Week Ahead" they only go up to Friday!

Incidentally the proof that the Met Office did indeed forecast a "Barbecue Summer" for 2009 is shown at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/archive/2009/summer2009:

The coming summer is 'odds on for a barbecue summer', according to long-range forecasts. Summer temperatures across the UK are likely to be warmer than average and rainfall near or below average for the three months of summer.

Chief Meteorologist at the Met Office, Ewen McCallum, said: "After two disappointingly-wet summers, the signs are much more promising this year. We can expect times when temperatures will be above 30 °C, something we hardly saw at all last year."

Although the forecast is for a drier and warmer summer than average it does not rule out the chances of seeing some heavy downpours at times. However, a repeat of the wet summers of 2007 and 2008 is unlikely.

Government Services Director, Rob Varley, said: "Our long-range forecasts are proving useful to a range of people, such as emergency planners and the water industry, in order to help them plan ahead. They are not forecasts which can be used to plan a summer holiday or inform an outdoor event."

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[StratoQ]

Have a read of this Hayzer as it echoes the feelings of most people here and maybe check this thread:  http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php/topic,2115.0.html

Thanks Doc & Hayzer.

Ive just merged the two threads as they are covering the same thing.

@ Butterfly : No Met Éireann don't produce monthly or seasonal forecasts.

Just saw 2 forecasters (Evelyn Cusack and Klara Finkla) repeating the same thing last night on TV, and rubbishing Long Range Forecasts.  Evelyn also said she thought the Long Range Forecasters were behaving irresponsibly and dire predictions of widespread snow and cold were having a worrying effect esp on the elderly.

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[Karl]

It is also clearly stated by Klara when we done the radio interview on rte radio1 that we can only go to 10 days ahead in this current day and age. She also said that the models are improving but we are far away from going beyond this range.

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[T9]

I think that ME should release a statement to the media that basically dispells the concept of the LRF or at least point out that the scaremongering is having an adverse effect on businesses and people.

Maybe we should do similar and notify the media of our feelings. Obviously it does no harm to be ready for such a situation where we get an artic blast but the truth of the matter is we just don't know whats going to happen and neither does anyone else for that matter.

The simple truth is that unforeseen events can occur that can greatly effect the outcome. I mean all signs could be pointing to a mild winter and all of a sudden one maybe two volcanoes have a massive eruption, Thats a game changer.

The only thing we can be sure of in winter is that it'll be cooler than the autumn and colder than the summer. Small scale synoptics cannot be forecast from 5-10 days out as we well know. Its a mathematical based forecast with huge errors the norm the further you forecast.

Even last winter we all sat and watched the models and struggled with some of the setups that were thrown at us and it ended up that anything beyond 36hrs was classified as FI.

But this is why we love the weather its the unknown that jumps out and surprises us all.

T9

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[Indycat]

The infamous James Madden has released his 'Final' Winter 2100-12 Forecast Update
http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html

No real change from his earlier pronouncements though he does seem to suggest that forecasters in general are becoming bored with this winter forecasting lark 

Some major indifferences amongst many forecasters about what this winter has in store for us

and as for his comments on the October Snowfest that wasn't complete with images of snowfall in the Cairngorms and 'freak' snowfall in Derry -  clutching at straws or what!!

I stated on the 2nd September 2011 update

“As we head towards winter, I expect to see the first signs of some moderate to heavy snowfalls as early as October or November in certain parts of the UK. In terms of the meteorological winter, I expect December, January, and February to experience below average temperatures, with the heaviest snowfalls occurring within the time frame of November to January across many parts of the UK.”

October 2011 has seen some moderate to heavy snowfall in CERTAIN parts of the UK. The first snow of the season came in early October in upland Scotland, and although snow is certainly not unusual in these parts of the UK during October, this is why I included this within my autumn forecast/winter update. Further heavier falls of snow and drifts was also recorded later on within the month in Scotland, with the earliest snowfall in almost 50 years in Co Derry, Northern Ireland.

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[StratoQ]

and as for his comments on the October Snowfest that wasn't complete with images of snowfall in the Cairngorms and 'freak' snowfall in Derry -  clutching at straws or what!!

The man is a complete idiot.

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[Pad]

http://travel.aol.co.uk/2011/11/02/britain-to-be-hit-by-siberian-freeze-in-two-weeks/

and Karl posted an update on the Model Output thread yesterday...... maybe something is brewing? Imagine...

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[StratoQ]

I take that report Pad with a huge dose of snow-eating salt!

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[Pad]

My dad was talking to a friend today and she said that her brother who is a farmer up in lacken co Wicklow  said that there will be snow around the 17th nov and will last 40 days

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[Pad]

The SKODA ad on the radio is truly ridiculous

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