Have a read of this Hayzer as it echoes the feelings of most people here and maybe check this thread: http://www.irelandsweather.com/forum/index.php/topic,2115.0.html
Quote from: Snowbie on October 19, 2011, 20:43:33
I'm not here to tell you all how it's going to pan out, I'm telling you all how it is in the real world.
Winter 2008/2009 started late in January with good amount of snow in the east especially over the Wicklow mtns.
Winter 2009/2010 was noted for the longevity of cold with avg temps below the seasonal norm but with lack of snow.
Winter 2010/2011 well December was a record breaker but Jan was below avg and Feb 2C above avg temp and rainfall above avg too. Apart from snow in the midlands on 7th Jan, nothing else happened with Feb being a complete washout.
Winter 2011/2012, Mother nature only knows? You can never rule out snow in the Winter months. Will we see another record breaking month like Dec 2010, the length of cold like the season before or will we settle into the usual pattern or mild or perhaps cool zonal with some cold snaps instead of cold spells.
I have to be critical of these LRFs and repeat myself but due to the above recent winters, some have just jumped on the bandwagon because it was cold and snowy in this country. These people just don't have the first clue of what is around the corner. As they can't see the weather in 2 weeks time, how can they forecast and predict months in advance. Meteorology is not an exact science and is just completely guess work. I have never seen any hard evidence to prove themselves right only to speculate on what went wrong. 1 out of 2 chances they can be right so the odds are in favour.
Dec 2010, no one saw this coming. Not naming any names but the respected folk got this wrong.
April probably the summer of 2011 but in mid Spring. Was this predicted by these experts, no.
Summer 2011 heatwaves, in fact the coldest Summer in 46 years in places with majority below the avg temp wise. Yet again these folk got this wrong.
October 2011, -20s predicted and snow but reached 30C in the UK but we where so close to this airmass only high pressure just slipped further east. Nevertheless, this October may end up a record breaking month with well above temperature in Ireland.
November snows and cold now. I can't tell you this will happen nor can I tell you it won't, I know what I would like but not too sure if we will get it.
If it's within 10 days or farthest reaches of FI (Fantasy Island) we can talk about it and watch it develop but with the usual caveats, this will all change on next runs but we sit up and take note when someone mentions snow 3 months away. Why believe these folk and how can you take their word if they are so wrong all the time, again the 1 out of of 2 chance they can be right.
I don't do LRF, I don't believe them and never did. Science defo FTW but why can the professionals only can go to 10 days when even they admit that climatology(basically the study of Earth's past and predicting trends in future) is a developing science and a very low % beyond 30 days. They too got this wrong with the global warming which blew out of kilter. This stuff makes headlines and sells to the general public. I wouldn't jump on this bandwagon and support it.
I love cold and snowy winters, it excites me when I see a first glance and a snapshot of something in the making in FI and watch it develop. This is the real buzz to weather forecasting and then fine tuning it as it comes closer to the time. This is what I enjoy doing and tell it how it is and not what people like to hear.
Today FM rang me around 2pm to do a piece on this cold snap with Matt Cooper on the last word. It was a Live piece at 450pm. At first , She asked me a few questions to see what I knew of this cold snap (this one atm) and I said what cold snap? you mean cold blip?. This is not unusual for October in this record breaking mild month, it's being mild since Autumn began and the talk in the media about all this snow and cold is inaccurate back in September. So I was prepared to tell the country my thoughts again but strange enough, I got a phonecall back at 430pm to say the slot can't be filled with this topic today. I wondered if I said to her early that this winter is going to be harsh, snowy and bitter would have I got on the airwaves then? Remains to be seen.
I will continue to support the posting up of these LRFs here as they won't effect my life whatsoever, but post up their findings and help them educate me and you and to why this or that will occur. Right now, no rock solid evidence. One other thing, if the apparent low solar activity does not pan out for this winter and the La Nina winter that's due, we should jettison this theory out to space. If it does occur and the length of cold some are predicting with snow galore, I will then take with a smaller pinch of salt and listen a bit more.